Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
Session Recap — Friday, 2026-09-04
The September 4 session ended lower across most major averages. Stocks finished lower Friday after an unexpectedly strong jobs report boosted investors' expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve, sending Treasury yields higher. The packet confirms the broad direction: three of four tracked indexes declined on the day.
| Index | Close | Day Chg |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,718.60 | −0.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,507.0 | −0.29% |
| Dow Jones | 53,414.25 | −0.51% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,975.65 | +0.25% |
| VIX | 14.53 | +1.47% |
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.78%, up 2.2 basis points from the prior session's 4.76%. American employers added 162,000 workers to payrolls in August, roughly three times the number that economists had forecast — that blowout number was the direct catalyst for the yield move and the equity reversal.
Overnight & Today (2026-09-08)
Markets return from a holiday-extended weekend into a more complex tape. US stock futures edged lower as Wall Street returned from the long weekend, with elevated oil prices keeping inflation risks and interest rate concerns in focus; oil prices climbed further after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend.
Brent crude futures rose above $98 a barrel, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is trading at 4.80%.
Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion worth of U.S. goods take effect Tuesday.
The Fed is set to hold its September monetary policy meeting next week; traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Several stocks are moving on S&P index changes announced late Friday: BE, Everpure (P), and ILMN are being added to the S&P 500, while TAP, TTD, and BLDR are being removed.
On the corporate side, Uber hired banks to meet with investors this week ahead of a planned debut euro bond sale — relevant given UBER's appearance in this week's top-5. Attention later this week shifts toward Oracle and Adobe earnings on Thursday, serving as vital indicators for enterprise software demand and ongoing AI investment. Both report on our own earnings calendar (see Earnings on Deck below).
Pre-open futures as reported by Investrade (Sept. 8, 2026): Dow −0.73%, S&P 500 −0.25%, Nasdaq roughly flat. (TipRanks)
Breadth & Sector Rotation — 2026-09-04
Of 2,882 names in the universe, 1,483 advanced and 1,305 declined — an advance/decline ratio of 51.5%. The session was internally divergent despite the headline-level selloff in large-cap indexes.
Led: Industrials (median +0.89%, 295 up / 112 down) and Consumer Cyclical (median +0.59%, 193 up / 99 down) posted the session's strongest breadth. Small and mid-cap industrial names carried the rotation.
Lagged: Communication Services was the clear laggard (median −0.98%, only 27 of 106 names positive). Energy (median −0.34%) and Consumer Defensive (median −0.28%) also closed in the red, consistent with the jobs-driven rate-concern narrative pressuring rate-sensitive and defensive names.
Big movers:
- NX +22.23% (Industrials) — Zacks Investment Research noted the stock hit a 52-week high and published a valuation comparison with AGX; earnings-driven pop.
- LULU −17.38% (Consumer Cyclical) — The Motley Fool covered Michael Burry's largest position falling more than 50% this year; significant earnings-led gap down.
- GWRE −19.93% (Technology) — Zacks Investment Research reported Q4 earnings and revenues topped estimates, yet the stock was punished; a classic "beat-and-fall" reaction, likely on guidance or valuation reset.
- FICO −16.68% and PATH −16.63% (both Technology) contributed to tech's flat median despite 221 advancers.
Volatility Environment
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| VIX (2026-09-04 close) | 14.53 |
| VIX 3M (VIX3M) | 17.61 |
| Term-structure ratio | 0.825 |
| Term-structure state | Contango |
| VIX week-over-week | +0.69% (from 14.43 on 2026-08-28) |
The curve is in contango — near-term VIX at 14.53 sits well below the 3-month VIX3M at 17.61, reflecting market confidence that near-term risk is contained even as the medium-term view prices elevated uncertainty (rate-hike probability, Middle East tensions, Canadian tariffs). The ratio of 0.825 is nowhere near inversion; no structural stress signal is present.
ATM-straddle expected moves (last-session marks — reference levels, not live NBBO):
| This week (Sep 9, 1 DTE) | This month (Oct 9, 31 DTE) | |
|---|---|---|
| SPY ($770.19) | ±$5.02 / ±0.65% → $765.17–$775.21 | ±$23.19 / ±3.01% → $747.00–$793.38 |
| QQQ ($718.96) | ±$7.03 / ±0.98% → $711.93–$725.99 | ±$30.70 / ±4.27% → $688.26–$749.66 |
The market is pricing a single-day SPY range of roughly $10 wide for Wednesday's open — modest given the macro backdrop. The 31-day SPY range of about $46 is more respectful of the rate and geopolitical noise ahead.
How the Last Five Aged (edition: 2026-09-03)
All five names featured in the September 3 edition remain above their reference strikes as of the 2026-09-04 close.
| Symbol | Price Then | Price Now | Chg | Ref Strike | Expiry | Above Ref? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | 76.45 | 75.76 | −0.90% | 72 | 2026-10-09 | ✅ |
| DVN | 49.03 | 48.06 | −1.98% | 46 | 2026-10-09 | ✅ |
| HAL | 37.63 | 37.07 | −1.49% | 35 | 2026-10-09 | ✅ |
| NU | 15.40 | 15.37 | −0.19% | 14 | 2026-10-09 | ✅ |
| SMCI | 37.00 | 39.59 | +7.00% | 32 | 2026-10-09 | ✅ |
Four of five names drifted slightly lower with the broader market; all four maintained comfortable cushions above reference. SMCI was the standout, adding 7% over the five days, extending its buffer above the $32 reference strike to more than 23%.
Open Positions
Opty Weekly v1
This book is winding down — no new trades. The two remaining positions run to expiry.
| Symbol | Leg | Strike | Expiry | Close | Cushion | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI | CC | 44 | 2026-09-18 | 39.59 | +11.14% | Recovery mode |
| LUV | CC | 45 | 2026-12-18 | 39.62 | +13.58% | Recovery mode |
SMCI closed at 39.59 on September 4, up +4.54% on the day and +6.77% over five sessions. The covered call at $44 remains out of the money with a breakeven of $43.72. LUV gained +2.30% on the day; the $45 covered call expiring December 18 sits well out of the money.
Opty Ladder
| Symbol | Leg | Close | Breakeven | Cushion | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCG | Shares (uncovered) | 14.30 | 16.20 | −11.73% | ⚠️ See Risk Flags |
| CCL | Shares (uncovered) | 23.51 | 24.64 | −4.59% | ⚠️ See Risk Flags |
| HOOD | CSP | 122.11 | 94.29 (BE) | +22.20% | Strike $95, exp 2026-09-11 |
HOOD closed at 122.11 after a −2.09% session; the $95 CSP expiring September 11 carries 22.2 points of cushion. CCL news flow: Zacks Investment Research posed whether CCL can beat estimates again in its next earnings report — no hard catalyst yet, but the question of whether the assignment-cost share position can recover before that catalyst is live.
Opty Monthly
| Symbol | Leg | Strike | Expiry | Close | Cushion | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | CSP | 70 | 2026-10-16 | 72.35 | +3.25% | ⚠️ Thin — see Risk Flags |
| CCL | CSP | 22 | 2026-10-16 | 23.51 | +6.42% | Monitoring |
| CRDO | CSP | 200 | 2026-10-16 | 170.57 | −17.25% | ⚠️ ITM — see Risk Flags |
CRDO closed at 170.57, down −3.90% on September 4 and −26.72% over five sessions. The Motley Fool's "Why Credo Technology Sank This Week" (published 2026-09-03) attributed the move to broad AI-sector rotation pressure — no company-specific fundamental news cited. The $200 CSP is deeply in the money; the $187.70 breakeven represents the relevant level to watch.
Risk Flags
⚠️ Ladder PCG — Shares uncovered, ITM PCG closed at $14.30 on September 4 against a breakeven of $16.20. The position is −11.73% below breakeven and has lost −13.86% over five sessions. This is an assignment-cost situation, not automatically a realized loss — the shares are held — but the distance to breakeven is material and widening.
⚠️ Ladder CCL — Shares uncovered, ITM CCL closed at $23.51 against a breakeven of $24.64, sitting −4.59% below breakeven. The five-session decline is −5.05%. Earnings are due September 28 (BMO) — that event carries binary risk for an uncovered share position.
⚠️ Monthly CRDO — CSP $200 ITM CRDO at $170.57 is −17.25% inside the $200 strike; the effective floor is the $187.70 breakeven. The Motley Fool's coverage cited sector-rotation selling, not a fundamental break — but the gap between price and strike means assignment probability is elevated and the path to recovery through expiry (October 16) is steep.
⚠️ Monthly AFRM — Thin cushion on CSP $70 AFRM closed at $72.35 with only +3.25% of cushion above the $70 strike. The five-session decline of −6.96% arrived quickly; any continued weakness brings the strike into range before October 16 expiry.
⚠️ Earnings this week — held names Per our earnings calendar:
- GME reports today (2026-09-08, AMC)
- CCL reports 2026-09-28 (BMO) — Jim holds shares in both the Ladder and Monthly books, and the Monthly CSP at $22 is active
GME is not held directly in tracked books, but Jim holds a CSP on CCL across two books — the September 28 report is the next binary event for that position.
Jim's Scoreboard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total P&L | $16,460.63 |
| Return (243 days) | +18.01% |
| Annualized | 27.06% |
| Win rate | 92% (78W / 7L) |
By book:
| Book | P&L | Return | Ann. | Win Rate | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opty Weekly v1 | $5,401 | +10.80% | 31.29% ann. | 93% | 126 days |
| Opty Ladder | $664 | +0.66% | — | 100% | 15 days* |
| Opty Monthly | $22,419 | +8.97% | 25.98% ann. | 100% | 126 days |
*Ladder is 15 days old — annualizing a 15-day return produces a meaningless figure and is withheld.
Note: Two Monthly book rows carry restated estimates (LAZ, SW). Their contribution is not presented as a hard number per ledger guidance.
Deployment Snapshot
Weekly v1 is winding down with no deployment target — its two positions run to expiry.
| Book | Capital | Deployed | Deployed % | Target % | Room |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly v2 | $100K | $21,950 | 21.9% | 46% (Greed band 14–16) | $24,050 |
| Monthly | $250K | $71,400 | 28.6% | 46% (Greed band 14–16) | $43,600 |
VIX at 14.53 places both books in the Greed band (14–16), with target deployment at 46%. Both books are meaningfully under target. The direction signal is flat.
Top-5 Candidates
All prices and IV data are as of the 2026-09-04 close. Strike premiums are last-session marks — reference levels only, not live NBBO. Execute with current quotes.
1. FCX — Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.
Wheel Score 77 | Assignment Quality 78
FCX closed at $72.73 on September 4 (+0.23% on the day, −4.87% over five sessions). IV 49% with an IV Rank of 55, measured over a mature 202-day history. HV30 is 46.6%; IV is running about 1.05× realized — premium is approximately in line with recent actual movement. The 103% EPS growth figure and accelerating forward trajectory are notable positives; the position near the 52-week high is a headwind for wheel entry.
FCX news: Zacks Investment Research covered Southern Copper's operating cash flow as a sector read-across (published 2026-09-07) — no direct FCX catalyst.
Earnings: 2026-10-22 (BMO) — outside both expirations below.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
| Tenor | Tier | Strike | Expiry | DTE | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | Delta | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Conservative | 67 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.55 | 0.82% | 30.0% | 12.2 | 702 |
| Weekly | Moderate | 70 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $1.39 | 1.99% | 72.5% | 26.3 | 11,342 |
| Weekly | Aggressive | 72 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $2.15 | 2.99% | 109% | 36.2 | 745 |
| Monthly | Conservative | 65 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.19 | 1.83% | 21.6% | 16.1 | 34 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Moderate | 68 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.89 | 2.78% | 32.7% | 24.9 | 35 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Aggressive | 72 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $3.53 | 4.90% | 57.7% | 38.6 | 15 ⚠️ thin |
All three monthly strikes carry open interest below 200 — verify fill quality with a limit order before sizing. The weekly moderate at the $70 strike has deep, liquid open interest (11,342 contracts).
IV 49% with an IV Rank of 55 positions FCX near the upper half of its 202-day range — premium is elevated relative to its own history.
2. LUV — Southwest Airlines Company
Wheel Score 90 | Assignment Quality 71
LUV closed at $39.62 on September 4 (+2.30% on the day). IV 42% with an IV Rank of 46 over a mature 202-day history. HV30 is 37.5%; IV is running 1.12× realized. A 201% EPS growth rate and accelerating forward trajectory score well; a 29% drawdown from the 52-week high keeps assignment quality at 71.
Earnings: 2026-10-21 (AMC) — clear of both expirations below.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
| Tenor | Tier | Strike | Expiry | DTE | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | Delta | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Conservative | 36 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.16 | 0.44% | 16.2% | 9.8 | 58 ⚠️ thin |
| Weekly | Moderate | 37.5 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.37 | 0.99% | 36.0% | 23.4 | 3,278 |
| Weekly | Aggressive | 38.5 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.61 | 1.58% | 57.8% | 36.3 | 66 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Conservative | 35 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $0.52 | 1.49% | 17.5% | 14.0 | 22 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Moderate | 37 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.11 | 3.00% | 35.3% | 27.5 | 19 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Aggressive | 38 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.47 | 3.87% | 45.5% | 35.6 | 8 ⚠️ thin |
Liquidity is concentrated at the weekly moderate ($37.50 strike, 3,278 OI). All other strikes show thin open interest — use limit orders and allow time for fills. LUV is also a current held position in Weekly v1 (CC at $45, December expiry).
IV 42% with an IV Rank of 46 places LUV near mid-range in its own vol history.
3. UAL — United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Wheel Score 93 | Assignment Quality 68
UAL closed at $111.38 on September 4 (+2.50% on the day, +0.71% over five sessions). IV 47% with an IV Rank of 45 over a mature 202-day history. HV30 is 42.5%; IV is running 1.11× realized. Analyst consensus is strongly positive across the board; P/E of 10.4 and a 42% EPS growth rate score at the top of the wheel metrics. Assignment quality is weighed down by a 21% drawdown from the 52-week high.
Earnings: 2026-10-21 (AMC) — both expirations below clear the report.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
| Tenor | Tier | Strike | Expiry | DTE | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | Delta | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Conservative | 102 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.56 | 0.55% | 20.0% | 13.7 | 34 ⚠️ thin |
| Weekly | Moderate | 104 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.79 | 0.76% | 27.7% | 22.2 | 76 ⚠️ thin |
| Weekly | Aggressive | 108 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $1.96 | 1.81% | 66.2% | 40.1 | 427 |
| Monthly | Conservative | 97 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.38 | 1.42% | 16.8% | 15.0 | 2 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Moderate | 102 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $2.08 | 2.04% | 24.0% | 25.0 | 4 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Aggressive | 107 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $3.88 | 3.63% | 42.7% | 39.1 | 4 ⚠️ thin |
Liquidity is very thin across most UAL strikes — the weekly aggressive at $108 (427 OI) is the most liquid option listed. All monthly strikes have open interest in the single digits; fills may be difficult at mid. Use limit orders carefully and check current NBBO before sizing any position.
IV 47% with an IV Rank of 45 is mid-range on a mature history.
4. UBER — Uber Technologies, Inc.
Wheel Score 80 | Assignment Quality 71
UBER closed at $75.76 on September 4 (−0.26% on the day, −3.88% over five sessions). IV 37% with an IV Rank of 44 over a mature 203-day history. HV30 is 41.3%; IV at 0.9× realized means options are slightly cheap relative to recent realized movement — a modest headwind for premium sellers. The 52-week pullback (down 25% from high) scores well for wheel entry positioning.
News: Zacks Investment Research covered whether UBER is a buy as it closes in on a Delivery Hero buyout (published 2026-09-07). Additionally, per Trading Economics, Uber hired banks to meet with investors this week ahead of a planned debut euro bond sale — a potential capital-structure event worth monitoring.
Earnings: 2026-11-03 (BMO) — well clear of both expirations below.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
| Tenor | Tier | Strike | Expiry | DTE | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | Delta | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Conservative | 71 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.40 | 0.56% | 20.6% | 14.5 | 155 ⚠️ thin |
| Weekly | Moderate | 73 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.85 | 1.16% | 42.5% | 24.9 | 1,021 |
| Weekly | Aggressive | 75 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $1.60 | 2.13% | 77.9% | 38.3 | 11,303 |
| Monthly | Conservative | 68 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $0.57 | 0.84% | 9.9% | 12.9 | 47 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Moderate | 71 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.22 | 1.72% | 20.2% | 23.2 | 91 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Aggressive | 74 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $2.20 | 2.97% | 35.0% | 35.9 | 8 ⚠️ thin |
Monthly conservative through aggressive strikes and the weekly conservative all show thin open interest. Deepest liquidity sits at the weekly aggressive $75 strike (11,303 OI) and weekly moderate $73 (1,021 OI). UBER is also a current hold in Jim's personal positions (CSP active).
IV 37% with an IV Rank of 44 is mid-range on a mature 203-day history. The IV/HV ratio below 1.0 is the key note for premium sellers here.
5. DVN — Devon Energy Corporation
Wheel Score 76 | Assignment Quality 83
DVN closed at $48.06 on September 4 (−1.50% on the day, +1.50% over five sessions). IV 35% with an IV Rank of 42 — note that DVN's IV Rank is measured over only 167 days; it is a real rank but not yet a full-year figure and cannot be described as a 52-week rank. HV30 is 36.4%; IV at 0.96× realized is nearly at parity. The 2.13% dividend yield adds to the total return profile. Analyst consensus is strongly positive across the board. The 52-week position (near high, scoring only 2/15) is the primary wheel-entry caution.
Earnings: 2026-11-04 (TBD) — well clear of both expirations below.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
| Tenor | Tier | Strike | Expiry | DTE | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | Delta | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly | Conservative | 45 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.25 | 0.56% | 20.3% | 13.3 | 7,949 |
| Weekly | Moderate | 46.5 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.60 | 1.29% | 47.1% | 26.0 | 80 ⚠️ thin |
| Weekly | Aggressive | 47.5 | 2026-09-18 | 10 | $0.91 | 1.92% | 69.9% | 36.2 | 11,130 |
| Monthly | Conservative | 43 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $0.40 | 0.93% | 11.0% | 12.8 | 4 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Moderate | 45 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $0.78 | 1.73% | 20.4% | 22.5 | 6 ⚠️ thin |
| Monthly | Aggressive | 47 | 2026-10-09 | 31 | $1.47 | 3.13% | 36.8% | 35.6 | 16 ⚠️ thin |
Weekly conservative ($45, 7,949 OI) and weekly aggressive ($47.50, 11,130 OI) are liquid; the weekly moderate at $46.50 is thin (80 OI). All three monthly strikes carry very thin open interest — use limit orders and verify fills. DVN's IV Rank history is 167 days, not a full year.
Crude oil's surge overnight — Brent crude futures rose above $98 a barrel due to Middle East tensions — is a live macro tailwind for energy names including DVN, but also introduces headline risk that can cut both ways quickly.
Earnings on Deck
Reports this week from our calendar (held names flagged):
| Symbol | Date | Time | Mkt Cap | Wheel Score | Held? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY | 2026-09-08 | AMC | $28.0B | 79 | — |
| GME | 2026-09-08 | AMC | $8.6B | 72 | — |
| TTAN | 2026-09-08 | AMC | $8.4B | 36 | — |
| ABM | 2026-09-08 | BMO | $2.8B | 82 | — |
| UNFI | 2026-09-08 | BMO | $2.7B | 26 | — |
| COO | 2026-09-09 | AMC | $13.6B | 80 | — |
| CHWY | 2026-09-09 | BMO | $9.7B | 86 | — |
| CNM | 2026-09-09 | BMO | $8.6B | 90 | — |
| ORCL | 2026-09-10 | AMC | $457B | 84 | — |
| ADBE | 2026-09-10 | AMC | $106B | 86 | — |
| CPRT | 2026-09-10 | AMC | $31.2B | 80 | — |
| KR | 2026-09-11 | BMO | $35.9B | 85 | — |
No directly held positions in tracked books report this week. CCL reports September 28 — see Risk Flags for the bearing on open positions.
Recent OptyTrades Videos
The three most recent episodes on the channel:
1. "How Much I Made Trading The Wheel This Week" — IREN / HPQ / PYPL / CCL (week of 2026-08-29) 2. "The Wheel Strategy: How I Made $1,100 This Week" — NU / CCL / SOFI / UBER / HOOD / NFLX (week of 2026-08-22) 3. "How I Made $1700 in Extra Income This Week!" — IREN / SOFI / CCL / UBER / NFLX / HOOD / NU (week of 2026-08-14)
⚠ Educational Only — Not Financial Advice
All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.