Pick Track Record

Same dataset, sliced by recency. If recent results diverge sharply from long-term, the model may be drifting and we'll investigate.

Opty's blue-chip picks ($100+ per share) vs. Opty Jr's budget-friendly picks (under $100). Different capital footprints, different risk profiles.

The honest test of a quality score: do higher scores produce better real-world outcomes? If 80–89 and 70–79 perform identically, the model is over-weighted on noise. If 90+ stocks dominate, the score is doing its job.

Which sectors actually wheel well. Useful for tilting your own portfolio, and a reality check on our sector caps.

Every pick gets two parallel resolutions: the monthly strike we actually recommend (21–45 DTE) and a weekly counterfactual (5–12 DTE) tracked silently alongside it. Same pick, same week, two real outcomes — so this comparison reflects what would have actually happened, not a simulation.

Read the annualized column as the apples-to-apples comparison: a 1% return in a week annualizes very differently from 1% in a month. Higher annualized with similar win rate ⇒ that DTE bucket is the better engine on this universe.

The CSP leg above tells you whether the put expired or got assigned. This section tells you the full story: every CSP all the way through covered calls and called-away shares. One row per wheel cycle, end to end.

Picks where we got assigned and are still selling covered calls. Stuck means shares have been held 90+ days without being called away — the honest “here's what didn't work cleanly” view. Mark-to-market values use the latest price snapshot.

The last 25 picks resolved.

• What “win” means (CSP leg): the cash-secured put expired worthless and we kept 100% of the premium with no shares assigned. Assigned outcomes are tracked separately and are not losses on their own — you keep the premium and own the shares at a discount. The full wheel-cycle section above shows what happens next.
• Wheel cycle status: Called away means the full wheel completed (shares sold via covered call). Holding shares means we're still in the covered-call phase. Stuck means we've held shares 90+ days without being called away — usually because the stock dropped below cost basis.
• Mark-to-market: for cycles still in progress, the “Mark” column uses the most recent price snapshot we have on file. It's an estimate, not a realized number.
• Weekly counterfactual: the weekly DTE numbers in section 05 are not hypothetical. Every pick stores a parallel weekly strike at generation time, and we resolve that weekly leg against the same closing-price feed used for the real (monthly) trade. We never recommended these weekly trades to users — they exist purely so we can publish an honest weekly-vs-monthly comparison instead of a guess.
• How outcomes are computed: for every pick, we fetch the underlying's closing price on the exact expiry date (institutional-quality SIP data via Polygon). Close at or above strike = expired worthless. Close below strike = assigned.
• Premium per $100k: total premium collected divided by total capital required (strike × 100), scaled to a $100,000 portfolio for apples-to-apples comparison.
• Annualized return: per-trade percentage return multiplied by 365 / days held. This is a return on capital tied up by the put, not a portfolio return.
• Sample sizes: any bucket with fewer than 30 resolved picks should be treated as directional, not statistically significant. We'll flag them in tables.
• What's excluded: picks still open (haven't reached expiry yet) and picks with missing expiry data. Currently 5 open CSPs and 12 assigned-but-still-held positions are not in the totals above.
• Slippage / fills: stats assume you sold the recommended balanced strike at the displayed premium on the day the pick was published. Real fills will vary — treat published numbers as an upper bound on what a disciplined trader could capture.
• Past performance does not predict future results. See our full disclaimer.