Friday, September 4, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
Session Recap — Thursday, September 3, 2026
All four major indexes closed higher, giving the session a clean sweep. U.S. stock indices closed higher on Thursday as bond yields halted their recent surge, supporting credit-sensitive sectors. The catalyst was straightforward: Fed Governor Waller signaled that a rate hike would not be warranted if underlying inflation continues to slow, marking a shift from earlier remarks highlighting inflation risks, and Treasury yields subsequently eased.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,747.71 | +1.06% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,584.06 | +1.40% |
| Dow Jones | 53,686.11 | +1.18% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,968.27 | +0.51% |
| VIX | 14.32 | −5.79% |
Technology led the charge. Credit-sensitive software stocks advanced, with Microsoft up 2.7%, Meta rising 3%, Oracle jumping 5.7%, and Palantir soaring 7.7%.
Gains among financial heavyweights also supported the Dow, with JPMorgan up 1.6%, Goldman Sachs gaining 3.3%, and Morgan Stanley adding 2.5%.
Volatility Environment
The VIX closed at 14.32, down 5.79% on the session and essentially flat on the week (−1.31% from the August 27 close of 14.51). The week-over-week pattern is consistent with the "Greed" VIX band (14–16) the deployment models are currently calibrated to.
Guard note — VIX3M unavailable: The packet carries no VIX3M data this cycle. Term-structure (contango/backwardation) cannot be characterized today; the VIX level alone is reported.
SPY & QQQ ATM-Straddle Expected Moves
Marks are last-session reference levels — not live NBBO pricing.
| Instrument | Price | Weekly expiry (Sep 8, 4 DTE) | Monthly expiry (Sep 30, 26 DTE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $773.17 | ±$5.53 / ±0.72% (range 767.64–778.70) | ±$19.03 / ±2.46% (range 754.14–792.20) |
| QQQ | $717.67 | ±$7.42 / ±1.03% (range 710.25–725.09) | ±$25.98 / ±3.62% (range 691.69–743.65) |
The market is pricing a quiet near-term envelope — less than a 1% weekly move in SPY — while the monthly straddle leaves notably wider room, reflecting residual uncertainty around the Fed's September meeting and Friday's jobs data.
Macro — Today (September 4, 2026)
The session-defining catalyst sitting in front of us this morning is the August nonfarm payrolls release (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 8:30 a.m. ET). The report is critical for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting; market consensus expects an addition of about 58,000 jobs with a 4.1% unemployment rate, following weak July figures.
The July backdrop is worth keeping in mind: nonfarm payroll employment fell 23,000 in July while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
May was also cut by 66,000 and June by 37,000 in revisions — 103,000 fewer jobs than previously reported across two months (Bureau of Labor Statistics / TOPONE Markets).
The reaction function has flipped. The usual jobs-report dynamic is inverted: through 2024 and 2025, weak payrolls meant cuts and a relief rally. In September 2026, a strong August print is the hawkish outcome, and a soft one is what takes hike risk off the table (TOPONE Markets). Fed officials in recent days have said they consider the labor market far less of a concern than inflation. Governor Waller said the jobs picture is in "satisfactory shape" — enough to allow the Fed to consider raising rates without disturbing the labor market if inflation doesn't ease further (CNBC).
10-Year Treasury
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Yield (Sep 3 close) | 4.76% |
| Prior close | 4.80% |
| Change | −3.4 bps |
Yields retreated 3.4 bps on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury note yield declined after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be "inclined to support" holding rates steady barring any surprises in upcoming inflation data (CNBC). Friday's payrolls print is the next inflection point.
Overnight Futures (as of brief generation)
| Future | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P | 7,758.00 | +0.04% |
| Nasdaq | 29,649.75 | +0.42% |
| Dow | 53,696.00 | −0.09% |
| Russell | 2,968.00 | −0.06% |
| Crude Oil | $90.90 | −0.44% |
| Gold | $4,514.90 | −0.55% |
Equity futures are fractionally mixed in a holding pattern ahead of the 8:30 a.m. print. Crude is slightly softer after oil prices accelerated earlier in the week on U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets; the barrage came after two oil tankers were struck while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent futures above $95 per barrel (Yahoo Finance).
Breadth — September 3 Session
From dated closes — 2,904-name universe.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Advancers | 1,791 (61.7%) |
| Decliners | 1,021 |
| Flat | 92 |
What led: Technology posted the best median gain at +1.22% (318 of 436 names up). Financial Services followed at +1.12% median (406 of 465 names up — the broadest participation of any sector). Industrials rounded out the top three at +0.94% median. Utilities added a quiet +0.78%.
What lagged: Consumer Defensive was the lone clear laggard at −0.65% median (only 36 of 117 names positive). Basic Materials shed −0.62% median; Healthcare slipped −0.34% (more names down than up at 268 vs. 202). Energy was modestly negative at −0.27%.
The yield-easing trade was the dominant thread — rate-sensitive tech and financials surged while defensive and commodity-linked sectors gave ground.
Session Movers
| Symbol | Move | Sector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHPT | +74.95% | Consumer Cyclical | Earnings |
| SMMT | +17.33% | Healthcare | — |
| MSTR | +17.56% | Technology | — |
| HOOD | +16.57% | Financial Services | Held — see below |
| MRLN | +17.89% | Industrials | — |
| ABTC | +18.68% | Financial Services | — |
| RARE | −44.03% | Healthcare | — |
| PSNY | −27.52% | Consumer Cyclical | — |
| CURR | −25.19% | Technology | — |
| PSQL | −20.02% | Other | — |
CHPT (+74.95%): ChargePoint posted a Q2 result that beat revenue estimates despite an ongoing net loss, per Zacks Investment Research. The revenue surprise was apparently sufficient to drive a major short-cover event.
RARE (−44.03%): Zacks Investment Research noted the stock had been up 6.4% since its last earnings report — that cushion has now been fully reversed and then some. No fundamental catalyst from our vendor headlines explains the magnitude; this appears to be a clinical or data event not captured in our feed.
HOOD (+16.57%): The Motley Fool reported that Robinhood now runs 13 revenue lines above $100 million annually, with a two-month-old network potentially joining that tier — a revenue diversification story that the market rewarded. Jim holds a HOOD CSP (see Positions).
Positions
Book Health
| Book | Cash | Deployed | Open Positions | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly v1 | $42,131 | $13,400 | 2 | Winding down — no new trades; existing legs run to expiry |
| Ladder | $55,314 | $45,350 | 7 | 11 days old — annualized return withheld (too young to annualize) |
| Monthly | $201,019 | $71,400 | 3 | — |
All three books confirmed clean monitor runs through 2026-09-03T21:02.
Open Legs
| Book | Symbol | Leg | Strike | Expiry | Close Sep 3 | Cushion | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly v1 | SMCI | CC | $44 | Sep 18 | $37.87 | +16.19% | Recovery mode |
| Weekly v1 | LUV | CC | $45 | Dec 18 | $38.73 | +16.19% | Recovery mode |
| Ladder | PCG | CSP | $16.50 | Sep 4 | $13.96 | −18.19% | ITM ⚠ |
| Ladder | CCL | CSP | $25.00 | Sep 4 | $23.48 | −6.47% | ITM ⚠ |
| Ladder | SMCI | CSP | $34.00 | Sep 4 | $37.87 | +10.22% | OTM |
| Ladder | HPQ | CSP | $27.00 | Sep 4 | $31.93 | +15.44% | OTM |
| Ladder | AFRM | CSP | $72.00 | Sep 4 | $74.30 | +3.10% | OTM / thin cushion ⚠ |
| Ladder | UBER | CSP | $74.00 | Sep 4 | $75.96 | +2.58% | OTM / thin cushion ⚠ |
| Ladder | HOOD | CSP | $95.00 | Sep 11 | $124.72 | +23.83% | OTM |
| Monthly | AFRM | CSP | $70.00 | Oct 16 | $74.30 | +5.79% | OTM |
| Monthly | CCL | CSP | $22.00 | Oct 16 | $23.48 | +6.30% | OTM |
| Monthly | CRDO | CSP | $200.00 | Oct 16 | $164.17 | −21.82% | ITM ⚠ |
Four Ladder legs expire today (Sep 4). PCG CSP $16.50 and CCL CSP $25 are both ITM entering expiration — each carries assignment risk at those strikes, not a guaranteed loss, but the probability of assignment is elevated. SMCI CSP $34 and HPQ CSP $27 both expired comfortably OTM. AFRM $72 and UBER $74 are technically OTM but with cushions of 3.10% and 2.58% respectively — thin heading into the open.
Risk Flags
1. Ladder PCG CSP $16.50 — ITM, expires TODAY. Close $13.96, breakeven $16.20, cushion −18.19%. PCG is also −22.23% over five sessions. Assignment at $16.50 is the primary risk; manage or monitor at the open. (Guard: MUST appear in Risk Flags.)
2. Ladder CCL CSP $25.00 — ITM, expires TODAY. Close $23.48, breakeven $24.64, cushion −6.47%. CCL is −5.89% over five sessions. Assignment at $25 is the primary risk. (Guard: MUST appear in Risk Flags.)
3. Monthly CRDO CSP $200 — ITM, Oct 16 expiry. Close $164.17, breakeven $187.70, cushion −21.82%. CRDO is −31.66% over five sessions. The Motley Fool noted this week that Credo Technology sank this week, though the stock also appeared in an AI thematic piece the same day. The leg has significant time value remaining (Oct 16 expiry) but the depth of the ITM move warrants ongoing monitoring.
4. Ladder AFRM CSP $72 — thin cushion (+3.10%). Also expires today. Any gap down at the open narrows the buffer to zero. Our vendor's Zacks headline on AFRM's space this week concerned a competitor's merchant network expansion — no direct positive catalyst for AFRM.
5. Ladder UBER CSP $74 — thin cushion (+2.58%). Also expires today. UBER closed $75.96.
6. August nonfarm payrolls release this morning (8:30 a.m. ET). The usual reaction function is inverted — a strong print is now the hawkish outcome, and a soft one takes rate-hike risk off the table (TOPONE Markets). Broad market and individual positions can gap in either direction.
7. No held names report earnings this week. The full earnings calendar is in the section below.
Earnings This Week (OptyTrades Calendar)
| Date | Symbol | Time | Wheel Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Sep 8 AMC | CASY | After Close | 79 |
| Tue Sep 8 AMC | GME | After Close | 72 |
| Tue Sep 8 AMC | TTAN | After Close | 36 |
| Tue Sep 8 BMO | VFS | Before Open | 17 |
| Wed Sep 9 AMC | COO | After Close | 80 |
| Wed Sep 9 BMO | CHWY | Before Open | 86 |
| Wed Sep 9 BMO | CNM | Before Open | 82 |
| Wed Sep 9 BMO | SAIL | Before Open | 27 |
| Thu Sep 10 AMC | ORCL | After Close | 84 |
| Thu Sep 10 AMC | ADBE | After Close | 84 |
| Thu Sep 10 AMC | CPRT | After Close | 80 |
| Thu Sep 10 AMC | DSGX | After Close | 80 |
| Fri Sep 11 BMO | KR | Before Open | 85 |
No held name appears on this week's earnings calendar. ORCL and ADBE (both Thursday AMC) are names the broader wheel community watches — earnings premium will elevate IV in those names into expiry.
Jim's Scoreboard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total P&L | +$15,652 |
| Return | +17.52% |
| Annualized | +26.76% |
| Days tracked | 239 |
| Win rate | 91% (73W / 7L) |
Jim holds positions in: CCL, HOOD, HPQ, IREN, NFLX, NU, PYPL, SMCI, SOFI, UBER.
Notable moves on Jim's names Thursday: HOOD +16.57%, IREN +5.18%, PYPL +3.93%, SOFI +3.76%, SMCI +2.35%, NU +1.82%. CCL slipped −1.10%, UBER −0.64%. HPQ and NFLX were flat.
Deployment Headroom
Weekly v1 is winding down and carries no deployment target — not shown below.
| Book | VIX Band | Target | Deployed | Room | Spendable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladder | Greed (14–16) | 46% / $46,000 | $45,350 (45.4%) | $650 | $650 |
| Monthly | Greed (14–16) | 46% / $115,000 | $71,400 (28.6%) | $43,600 | $43,600 |
The Ladder is effectively full for this cycle. The Monthly book carries substantial open room at the current VIX band.
Today's Top-5 Candidates
All data from last-session closes (September 3). Strike marks are last-session traded levels — not executable quotes. Verify fills before any order.
1 — UBER (Uber Technologies) | Wheel Score 80
IV 37% with an IV Rank of 44 (201-day history, mature). HV30: 43.6%. IV/HV ratio: 0.85 — options trading at a modest discount to realized vol.
Prior session close $75.96 (−0.64% on day, −1.29% on 5d). Candidate price $76.72. UBER already appears in the Ladder book as a live CSP ($74 strike, expiring today, thin cushion — see Risk Flags).
The Motley Fool covered UBER adjacent to an eVTOL sector piece this week — no direct fundamental catalyst in our feed.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
Weekly (Sep 11, 7 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $72 | 5.2% | 14.5 | $0.36 | 0.50% | 26.1% | 865 | — |
| Moderate | $74 | 2.6% | 27.4 | $0.85 | 1.15% | 59.9% | 886 | — |
| Aggressive | $75 | 1.3% | 35.3 | $1.21 | 1.61% | 84.1% | 2,739 | — |
Monthly (Oct 9, 35 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $68 | 10.5% | 13.6 | $0.70 | 1.03% | 10.7% | 34 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $71 | 6.5% | 23.4 | $1.32 | 1.86% | 19.4% | 33 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $75 | 1.3% | 39.6 | $2.86 | 3.81% | 39.8% | 104 | Thin OI |
All monthly UBER strikes carry thin open interest (<200 contracts). Fills may not reflect these marks.
2 — LUV (Southwest Airlines) | Wheel Score 90
IV 38% with an IV Rank of 39 (200-day history, mature). HV30: 36.8%. IV/HV ratio: 1.03 — options trading essentially at parity with realized vol.
Prior session close $38.73 (+0.31% on day, −2.59% on 5d). Candidate price $38.92. LUV also appears in the Weekly v1 book as a CC ($45 strike, Dec 18 expiry, recovery mode).
Analyst consensus is mixed — hold-tilted per our scoring. Dividend yield: 1.87%.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
Weekly (Sep 11, 7 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $36.50 | 5.8% | 12.9 | $0.16 | 0.44% | 22.9% | 47 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $37.50 | 3.2% | 24.7 | $0.34 | 0.91% | 47.3% | 52 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $38.50 | 0.6% | 42.6 | $0.79 | 2.05% | 107% | 118 | Thin OI |
Monthly (Oct 9, 35 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $34 | 12.2% | 13.8 | $0.40 | 1.18% | 12.3% | 1 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $36 | 7.0% | 25.0 | $0.74 | 2.06% | 21.4% | 5 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $38 | 1.9% | 39.9 | $1.47 | 3.87% | 40.3% | 8 | Thin OI |
Every LUV strike in both tenors carries thin open interest (<200 contracts). Slippage risk is material — confirm the market before sizing.
3 — DVN (Devon Energy) | Wheel Score 76
IV 34% with an IV Rank of 39 (165-day history — not yet mature; rank is real but measured over less than a full year, not a 52-week figure). HV30: 36.1%. IV/HV ratio: 0.94.
Prior session close $48.79 (−0.49% on day, +3.54% on 5d). Candidate price $48.82. Dividend yield: 2.12%. Analyst consensus is strongly positive across the board. The 52-week positioning score is low — DVN sits near its 52-week high, which compresses the cushion available on strike selection.
Our vendor (Zacks Investment Research) offered no direct DVN headline this cycle; coverage pointed toward a peer in the refining space.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
Weekly (Sep 11, 7 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $46.50 | 4.7% | 13.8 | $0.13 | 0.28% | 14.6% | 19 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $47.50 | 2.6% | 27.4 | $0.32 | 0.67% | 35.1% | 49 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $48 | 1.6% | 37.4 | $0.41 | 0.85% | 44.5% | 32 | Thin OI |
Monthly (Oct 9, 35 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $44 | 9.8% | 15.2 | $0.40 | 0.91% | 9.5% | 10 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $46 | 5.7% | 27.2 | $0.80 | 1.74% | 18.1% | 4 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $47 | 3.7% | 35.3 | $1.23 | 2.62% | 27.3% | 13 | Thin OI |
All DVN strikes in both tenors carry thin open interest (<200 contracts). The energy sector was modestly negative Thursday (median −0.27%); elevated crude from Middle East tensions is the sector-level driver to monitor.
4 — UAL (United Airlines Holdings) | Wheel Score 96
IV 42% with an IV Rank of 36 (200-day history, mature). HV30: 42.5%. IV/HV ratio: 0.99 — options trading at realized vol.
Prior session close $108.66 (+0.29% on day, −3.32% on 5d). Candidate price $108.66. Analyst consensus is strongly positive. The Motley Fool's eVTOL sector piece this week mentioned UAL in the aviation context.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
Weekly (Sep 11, 7 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $102 | 6.1% | 14.4 | $0.40 | 0.39% | 20.4% | 28 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $105 | 3.4% | 21.8 | $0.99 | 0.94% | 49.2% | 738 | — |
| Aggressive | $108 | 0.6% | 38.7 | $1.97 | 1.82% | 95.1% | 22 | Thin OI |
Monthly (Oct 9, 35 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $95 | 12.6% | 13.4 | $1.08 | 1.14% | 11.9% | 517 | — |
| Moderate | $100 | 8.0% | 22.4 | $2.11 | 2.11% | 22.0% | 3 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $106 | 2.4% | 36.9 | $4.51 | 4.25% | 44.4% | 0 | Thin OI — no OI |
Monthly moderate ($100) and aggressive ($106) carry thin or zero open interest. The aggressive monthly strike shows zero OI — treat that mark as indicative only.
5 — HAL (Halliburton) | Wheel Score 84
IV 35% with an IV Rank of 33 (199-day history, mature). HV30: 34.6%. IV/HV ratio: 1.01 — options trading near parity with realized vol.
Prior session close $37.29 (−0.90% on day, +5.07% on 5d). Candidate price $37.48. Dividend yield: 1.81%. Zacks Investment Research noted HAL outperformed the broader market earlier this week. HAL sits in the upper range of its 52-week band, which the scoring model flags as premium-thinning territory.
Reference strikes (last-session marks):
Weekly (Sep 11, 7 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $32.50 | 12.8% | 15.1 | $0.22 | 0.68% | 35.3% | 35 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $36 | 3.5% | 21.0 | $0.18 | 0.50% | 26.1% | 23 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $37 | 0.8% | 43.4 | $0.47 | 1.27% | 66.2% | 57 | Thin OI |
Monthly (Oct 9, 35 DTE):
| Tier | Strike | OTM% | Delta | Premium/sh | Yield | Ann. | OI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $33 | 11.5% | 12.4 | $0.37 | 1.12% | 11.7% | 1 | Thin OI |
| Moderate | $35 | 6.1% | 25.0 | $0.62 | 1.77% | 18.5% | 20 | Thin OI |
| Aggressive | $36 | 3.5% | 35.1 | $0.83 | 2.31% | 24.0% | 2 | Thin OI |
Every HAL strike in both tenors carries thin open interest (<200 contracts). Energy sector headwinds from crude volatility apply here as well.
How the Last Five Aged
The candidate history store began on September 1, 2026. No edition with stored candidates is yet a week old — this section opens once the first stored batch reaches the seven-day mark. Check back next week.
SMCI — Held Name Context
SMCI closed $37.87 (+2.35% on day). The Weekly v1 CC ($44 strike, Sep 18) and Ladder CSP ($34 strike, Sep 4, expiring today) both remain OTM. On the data-center macro front, GlobeNewswire Inc. published a MarketsandMarkets report noting the data center solutions market is projected to reach $1,336.55 billion by 2031 at a 20.1% CAGR — a tailwind narrative for SMCI's core business. Separately, Zacks Investment Research covered NetApp's Q1 earnings beat on AI and all-flash strength, underscoring the AI infrastructure spend cycle that SMCI operates within.
CRDO — Held Name Deep-Dive
CRDO closed $164.17 (−0.64% on day, −31.66% on five sessions). The Monthly CSP ($200 strike, Oct 16) sits ITM with a cushion of −21.82% against a breakeven of $187.70. The Motley Fool ran a piece this week titled "Why Credo Technology Sank This Week," alongside a separate AI-thematic piece naming CRDO as a longer-term AI infrastructure position. The divergence — a negative explanation of the move alongside bullish longer-horizon framing — captures the tension in the name right now. With 42 DTE remaining, the position has time, but the depth of the move means assignment probability is elevated.
Strike data represents last-session marks (prior-session traded levels), not live NBBO. Open interest figures are from the same close. All IV Rank values are sourced from our production data vendor. DVN, IREN, NU, and ET IV Ranks are measured over less than a full year of history — real but not 52-week figures. Two Monthly book rows (LAZ, SW) carry restated estimates; their P&L contributions are not broken out as hard numbers here.
⚠ Educational Only — Not Financial Advice
All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.