Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
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Crude oil pushing toward $95 and widening Middle East hostilities sent all four major indexes lower Tuesday; energy was the lone bright sector while Consumer Cyclical bore the heaviest losses.
What happened
Markets opened mostly lower Tuesday as geopolitical tensions returned to focus following reports of overnight attacks on Saudi energy facilities.
US forces then struck Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island overnight after Iran targeted a US Navy vessel, adding to Houthi drone and missile strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded just below $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude held above $93. The energy and utilities sectors were the only advancers in a broad sell-off; Consumer Cyclical dropped a median 2.11%, Healthcare fell 1.48%, and Financial Services shed 1.30%. Only 31% of the universe finished in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 2.2 basis points to 4.81%. VIX rose 2.75% on the day but remains down 3.79% on the week.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,673.52 | -0.58% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,421.41 | -0.32% |
| Dow Jones | 52,786.07 | -1.18% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,960.20 | -0.52% |
| VIX | 15.72 | +2.75% |
What it means for premium sellers
The VIX closed in the Greed band (14–16), where deployment targets sit at 40–50%. The vol structure is in contango — the VIX/VIX3m ratio is 0.855, with no near-inversion — meaning the market is not pricing persistent fear, just near-term caution. For SPY, the options market is pricing about ±0.7% through Friday and ±3.0% through October 9. For QQQ, the market is pricing about ±1.02% through Friday and ±4.27% through October 9.
Today and this week
No tier-1 releases are scheduled for Wednesday, September 9.
Thursday, September 10 brings two prints: PPI (August) at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and weekly jobless claims (scheduled by rule) also at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Friday, September 11 brings CPI (August) at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The August CPI release due before the FOMC decision remains a key near-term catalyst that could shift the narrow gap between hike and hold scenarios, according to Polymarket.
Tuesday, September 16 brings Retail Sales (August) at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Census Bureau, followed by the FOMC decision and updated projections at 2:00 p.m. ET. That meeting is seven days away. The current market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting is 57%, per centralbank.watch.
Polymarket prices the same meeting at 52% for a 25-basis-point hike and 48% for no change.
The September 16 meeting will include updated economic projections and a revised dot plot. This is a genuinely contested decision — inflation data this week could move the needle either direction.
Earnings today: AEO reports after the close today — Jim holds a CSP on AEO in the Monthly book. The options market is pricing about ±8.33% for Cooper Companies (COO, AMC). Chewy (CHWY, BMO) had the options market pricing about ±10.66%. CNM (BMO) had the market pricing about ±9.76% through September 18, per Yahoo consensus. Later this week: Oracle and Adobe both report Wednesday after the close — the options market is pricing about ±11.68% for Oracle and about ±8.28% for Adobe through Friday's expiry. Kroger (KR) reports Thursday morning; the options market is pricing about ±5.52%.
AEO is a held name in the Monthly book reporting today after the close. Position is a CSP. The options market is pricing about ±8.33% is for COO — AEO does not carry an expected move figure in this edition.
In the news
- Robinhood joined the underwriting syndicate for smart-ring maker Oura's IPO in its first official underwriting role, a move Zacks described as potential strategic diversification that could boost retail IPO allocations and fee-based revenues.
- Carnival closed down 1.32% Tuesday, underperforming the broader market, per Zacks. Separately, Zacks noted the cruise operator has 93% of 2026 business booked at record pricing with $9 billion in customer deposits — a constructive forward picture against near-term EPS headwinds.
- Lennar fell 3.84% in Tuesday's session, the biggest single-day drop among homebuilders, with Zacks projecting EPS down 34.5% and revenue off 5.42% for the upcoming quarter.
- NuScale Power (SMR) surged 15.26% Tuesday as the nuclear power theme caught a bid alongside oil's surge, per the session's breadth leaders in the Industrials sector.
- DigitalOcean (DOCN) gained 12.64% and CoreWeave (CRWV) rose 11.72%, both software-infrastructure names continuing to benefit from AI cloud spending momentum, per breadth data.
- Alibaba faces a class action lawsuit alleging securities fraud and unlawful business practices, following its inclusion on a US government watchlist, per GlobeNewswire.
- Rithm Capital (RITM) dropped 1.29% Tuesday, underperforming the S&P 500's decline, with Zacks flagging a projected 5.56% EPS decline for the upcoming quarter.
Names in play
Five names with constructive setups across energy, financials, and transportation as oil and rate uncertainty reshape sector leadership.
$FCX $76.62 Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.
IV 51% · IV Rank 62 · IV/HV 1.05x · Wheel Score 77 · Assignment Quality 81 · Reports Oct 22 before the open
Reference: $73 put, Sep 18 (9 days, weekly) · $1.09/share · 1.49% on cash · 60.6%/yr · Δ 0.25 · open interest 294
Copper giant getting a geopolitical-energy tailwind, surged Tuesday, and sits near a multi-month high on supply-side pricing pressure.
$NU $15.33 Nu Holdings Ltd.
IV 44% · IV Rank 50 (under a year of history) · IV/HV 0.95x · Wheel Score 91 · Assignment Quality 76 · Reports Nov 12
Reference: $14.5 put, Sep 18 (9 days, weekly) · $0.12/share · 0.83% on cash · 33.6%/yr · Δ 0.19 · open interest 4,009
Brazilian digital bank with accelerating growth, mid-range in its 52-week band, elevated volume Tuesday.
$LUV $38.67 Southwest Airlines Company
IV 42% · IV Rank 47 · IV/HV 1.11x · Wheel Score 90 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $37 put, Sep 18 (9 days, weekly) · $0.35/share · 0.95% on cash · 38.4%/yr · Δ 0.26 · open interest 172 — thin
Domestic airline pulled back meaningfully from its 52-week highs, sitting in a range that historically rewards patience for income sellers.
$UBER $73.13 Uber Technologies, Inc.
IV 38% · IV Rank 46 · IV/HV 0.91x · Wheel Score 80 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Nov 3 before the open
Reference: $71 put, Sep 18 (9 days, weekly) · $0.87/share · 1.23% on cash · 49.7%/yr · Δ 0.27 · open interest 155 — thin
Ride-share platform off its highs amid broader Consumer Cyclical weakness, actively expanding autonomous partnerships across multiple automakers.
$HAL $36.80 Halliburton Company
IV 37% · IV Rank 44 · IV/HV 1.15x · Wheel Score 84 · Assignment Quality 76 · Reports Oct 20 before the open
Reference: $35.5 put, Sep 18 (9 days, weekly) · $0.30/share · 0.85% on cash · 34.3%/yr · Δ 0.24 · open interest 88 — thin
Oilfield services name catching a direct bid from surging crude, steady near the middle of its annual range.
Note on liquidity: FCX monthly strikes carry thin open interest across conservative, moderate, and aggressive lines. LUV monthly strikes are also thinly traded across all three tiers. HAL monthly strikes show thin open interest on conservative and moderate lines. UBER monthly and weekly strikes are thinly traded at most levels. NU monthly strikes are thinly traded across all tiers. Anyone sizing into these names on monthly structures should verify fill quality carefully. Strike data shown on the cards is from prior-session marks — not live pricing.
NU's IV Rank is measured over a shorter history (105 days) and has not yet reached a full year of data. The rank is real but should not be read as a 52-week figure.
How the last five aged
Featured Sep 4 · 5 days ago
| Name | Then → now | Change | vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | $75.96 → $73.13 | -3.73% | above $71 put |
| LUV | $38.73 → $38.67 | -0.15% | above $36 put |
| DVN | $48.79 → $48.40 | -0.80% | above $46 put |
| UAL | $108.66 → $108.24 | -0.39% | above $100 put |
| HAL | $37.29 → $36.80 | -1.31% | above $35 put |
All five names from the September 4 edition — UBER, LUV, DVN, UAL, and HAL — stayed above their respective reference strikes through Tuesday's close; the set aged cleanly, though UBER gave back the most ground on the week.
Opty's books
- Opty Weekly v1 — winding down, 2 positions running to expiry; +10.80% on capital, +31.05% annualized, 93% wins
- Opty Ladder — 7 open; 40.2% deployed vs a 46% target (Greed band); +1.18% on capital (16 days old, too new to annualize), 100% wins
- Opty Monthly — 5 open; 40.7% deployed vs a 46% target (Greed band); +9.50% on capital, +27.29% annualized, 100% wins
Worth watching
- $CCL in Opty Ladder: $23 put (Sep 18), closed $23.20, 0.9% of cushion. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $UBER in Opty Ladder: $71 put (Sep 18), closed $73.13, 2.9% of cushion
- $NFLX in Opty Ladder: $74 put (Sep 18), closed $76.77, 3.6% of cushion
- $AFRM in Opty Monthly: $70 put (Oct 16), closed $72.08, 2.9% of cushion
- $CRDO in Opty Monthly: $200 put (Oct 16), closed $167.75, 19.2% inside the strike, breakeven $187.70
Jim's own book: +17.81% on account over 244 days, 92% wins (79W/7L). Track record →
Every position, priced live: the AI Trader page →
One thing worth knowing
A put going in the money is not automatically a loss — the breakeven, which accounts for all premium collected, is what determines whether the trade is ahead or behind at expiry.
When "in the money" is not a loss
A short put going in the money is an assignment risk, not automatically a loss. The strike is where shares get put to the seller. The breakeven is the strike minus every dollar of premium collected on that name, and it is the breakeven that decides whether the position is underwater at expiry. Between those two prices, assignment happens and the trade is still ahead. That gap is why the wheel has a second half: assignment is the trade doing what it was structured to do, buying shares at a named price, at a discount by the premium already received.
From the channel
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⚠ Educational Only — Not Financial Advice
All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.