Thursday, September 10, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
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Middle East oil stress pushed crude above $97 overnight, the 10-year yield sits at 4.84%, and a rate-hike decision six days away hangs on this morning's PPI print — all before Oracle and Adobe report after the close.
What happened
Tuesday's session ended broadly lower. Stocks opened lower as lingering Middle East tensions drove WTI crude above $95 a barrel, with energy the lone sector gaining ground, per Edward Jones. That tone held through the day. Brent pushed above $101.90 a barrel after Iranian officials signalled readiness for a prolonged escalation amid continuing naval tensions, Tickmill reported, sharpening the market's inflation anxiety. All four major indexes finished in the red, small-caps leading the decline. Energy was the session's lone winner; Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, and Industrials were the hardest-hit sectors. Meta was a notable exception, surging on the launch of its Muse AI agent.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,636.36 | -0.48% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,253.34 | -0.64% |
| Dow Jones | 52,380.66 | -0.77% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,921.24 | -1.32% |
| VIX | 16.46 | +4.71% |
What it means for premium sellers
The VIX closed in the Balanced band (16–20), and the term structure remains in contango — near-month fear is priced at a discount to the three-month strip, so carry is still with the seller. Weekly SPY options are pricing about ±0.91% through Friday; monthly options price about ±3.09% to October expiry. On QQQ, the weekly expected move is about ±1.26% and the monthly about ±4.44%. Premium is not elevated but it is paying steadily, and the contango structure rewards patience over urgency.
Today and this week
Today — Thursday, September 10
- PPI (August), 08:30 ET.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has the August PPI scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
July's reading was flat month-over-month — services rose 0.2% while goods fell 0.7% — with final demand up 4.7% over the prior twelve months.
July surprised to the downside at 4.7% year-over-year, below the prior 4.9% consensus; for August, Polymarket traders assign a 56.5% probability to a print at or above 5.1%, reflecting higher crude, persistent services inflation, and unfavorable base effects.
- Weekly jobless claims, 08:30 ET. Scheduled by calendar rule.
Rest of the week
- Friday, September 11 — CPI (August), 08:30 ET.
XTech's model forecasts August headline CPI at +0.4% month-over-month and core at +0.3%, above the street's +0.2% on core, per exponential-tech.ai.
- Tuesday, September 16 — Retail sales (August), 08:30 ET; FOMC decision + projections, 14:00 ET. The FOMC meeting is six days away.
Attention is squarely on the September 15–16 meeting, which will include updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, per defirate.com.
Rate probability pricing as of September 9 puts a 63% chance on a hike at the September 16 decision, per rateprobability.com.
The shift followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote at Jackson Hole, leaving the decision closely contested, CNBC reported.
- Thursday, September 17 — Weekly jobless claims, 08:30 ET. Scheduled by rule.
Earnings this week
Tonight, Oracle and Adobe report after the close. Oracle (the largest by market cap reporting today) carries a Yahoo consensus EPS estimate of $1.74, and the options market is pricing about ±11.91%. Adobe's Yahoo consensus sits at $6.09, with the options market pricing about ±8.2%. Copart also reports after the close tonight; consensus EPS per Yahoo is $0.38, with the market pricing about ±7.15%. Kroger follows Friday morning before the open.
Oil above $100 (Brent) overnight and an ECB rate hike are live variables for the European open.
The yen firmed to 153.46 per dollar after a Bank of Japan board member warned the BOJ may need to raise rates rapidly if energy-led inflation accelerates; the ECB is fully priced for a 25-basis-point increase to its deposit rate, per Tickmill.
In the news
- Meta surged more than 6% after launching Muse, a personal AI agent capable of shopping, booking flights, and organizing calendars — the move drove one of the session's brightest spots in an otherwise weak tape, per The Motley Fool.
- ServiceTitan dropped nearly 30% despite beating second-quarter estimates and raising full-year guidance; the sell-off was triggered by third-quarter sales guidance of $285–$287 million, which landed below analyst expectations, per The Motley Fool. A law firm subsequently announced an investigation into whether the company complied with federal securities laws following the earnings call, per GlobeNewswire.
- Steel producers face a mixed backdrop: muted demand from China, weak residential construction, and automotive slowdown are near-term headwinds, though elevated steel prices and strong non-residential construction provide some offset, per Zacks Investment Research. ArcelorMittal, Nucor, Steel Dynamics, and L.B. Foster were highlighted.
- Axogen agreed to acquire BioCircuit Technologies for $200 million in cash, adding NerveTape, the first FDA-approved sutureless device for peripheral nerve repair; the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, per GlobeNewswire.
- Swarmer agreed to acquire Ratel Robotics, a Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicle manufacturer, for up to $224 million in cash and stock, combining the companies' autonomous capabilities, per GlobeNewswire.
- Alibaba faces a class-action securities fraud lawsuit covering a roughly one-year window through June 2026, alleging the company failed to disclose material information about its relationship with Chinese government entities, per GlobeNewswire.
- Eli Lilly and Texas Instruments were highlighted by Zacks analysts for strong GLP-1 demand and pipeline momentum (Lilly) and improving order trends (Texas Instruments), per Zacks Investment Research.
Names in play
Energy and airlines are the week's rotation stories — oil stress is repricing risk, and a rate decision in six days adds a policy overlay to every setup.
$PYPL $52.17 PayPal Holdings, Inc.
IV 46% · IV Rank 58 · IV/HV 0.93x · Wheel Score 80 · Assignment Quality 66 · Reports Oct 27 before the open
Reference: $50 put, Sep 18 (8 days, weekly) · $0.75/share · 1.5% on cash · 68.4%/yr · Δ 0.28 · open interest 14,164
Fintech name pulled back sharply over the past month, sitting near its 52-week range lows with a dividend yield offering some floor.
$NU $15.00 Nu Holdings Ltd.
IV 45% · IV Rank 55 (under a year of history) · IV/HV 0.96x · Wheel Score 91 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Nov 12
Reference: $14 put, Oct 16 (36 days, monthly) · $0.42/share · 3% on cash · 30.4%/yr · Δ 0.28 · open interest 16,846
Fast-growing Latin American digital bank, mid-range in its 52-week band with accelerating earnings trajectory.
$HAL $37.13 Halliburton Company
IV 39% · IV Rank 50 · IV/HV 1.27x · Wheel Score 84 · Assignment Quality 76 · Reports Oct 20 before the open
Reference: $35 put, Oct 16 (36 days, monthly) · $0.77/share · 2.2% on cash · 22.3%/yr · Δ 0.28 · open interest 785
Oilfield services leader moving with crude; energy was the only sector green Wednesday.
$LUV $38.68 Southwest Airlines Company
IV 40% · IV Rank 44 · IV/HV 1.08x · Wheel Score 90 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $35 put, Oct 16 (36 days, monthly) · $0.58/share · 1.66% on cash · 16.8%/yr · Δ 0.21 · open interest 449
Airline deeply pulled back from highs, well-flagged on sector stress.
$UAL $107.12 United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
IV 44% · IV Rank 40 · IV/HV 1.05x · Wheel Score 96 · Assignment Quality 68 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $97.5 put, Oct 16 (36 days, monthly) · $2.01/share · 2.06% on cash · 20.9%/yr · Δ 0.24 · open interest 915
Also held in the five-day lookback; analyst consensus is strongly positive.
How the last five aged
Featured Sep 4 · 6 days ago
| Name | Then → now | Change | vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | $75.96 → $71.08 | -6.42% | above $71 put |
| LUV | $38.73 → $38.68 | -0.13% | above $36 put |
| DVN | $48.79 → $48.98 | +0.39% | above $46 put |
| UAL | $108.66 → $107.12 | -1.42% | above $100 put |
| HAL | $37.29 → $37.13 | -0.43% | above $35 put |
All five names from the Friday, September 4 edition remain above their reference strikes — LUV, DVN, UAL, and HAL held their ground while UBER has softened most in the group, though it still sits above its reference level.
Opty's books
- Opty Weekly v1 — winding down, 2 positions running to expiry; +10.80% on capital, +30.80% annualized, 93% wins
- Opty Ladder — 8 open; 45.3% deployed vs a 56% target (Balanced band); +1.22% on capital (17 days old, too new to annualize), 100% wins
- Opty Monthly — 5 open; 40.7% deployed vs a 56% target (Balanced band); +9.50% on capital, +27.08% annualized, 100% wins
Worth watching
- $PCG in Opty Ladder: $14 put (Sep 18), closed $14.19, 1.3% of cushion. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $CCL in Opty Ladder: $23 put (Sep 18), closed $22.70, 1.3% inside the strike, breakeven $22.52. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $UBER in Opty Ladder: $71 put (Sep 18), closed $71.08, 0.1% of cushion
- $NFLX in Opty Ladder: $74 put (Sep 18), closed $76.03, 2.7% of cushion
- $CMCSA in Opty Ladder: $25.5 put (Sep 18), closed $24.59, 3.7% inside the strike, breakeven $25.27 Down 6.6% in the last session.
- $AFRM in Opty Monthly: $70 put (Oct 16), closed $68.15, 2.7% inside the strike, breakeven $66.40 Down 5.5% in the last session.
- $CCL in Opty Monthly: $22 put (Oct 16), closed $22.70, 3.1% of cushion
- $CRDO in Opty Monthly: $200 put (Oct 16), closed $167.92, 19.1% inside the strike, breakeven $187.70
Jim's own book: +17.70% on account over 245 days, 92% wins (79W/7L). Track record →
Every position, priced live: the AI Trader page →
One thing worth knowing
When a short put moves through its strike, the breakeven — strike minus all premium collected — is what decides whether the trade is ahead or behind at expiry, not the strike itself.
When "in the money" is not a loss
A short put going in the money is an assignment risk, not automatically a loss. The strike is where shares get put to the seller. The breakeven is the strike minus every dollar of premium collected on that name, and it is the breakeven that decides whether the position is underwater at expiry. Between those two prices, assignment happens and the trade is still ahead. That gap is why the wheel has a second half: assignment is the trade doing what it was structured to do, buying shares at a named price, at a discount by the premium already received.
New on OptyTrades
New on OptyTrades
The Roll Analyzer got a serious upgrade
When a put goes against you, the Roll Analyzer prices every way out at once — and it now reaches much further. The grid runs about nine months out by default and two full years on the new Wide setting, with a deeper ladder of strikes on both sides of the one you hold. The strike column and the expiry dates stay pinned while you scroll, so a cell in the far corner still tells you what it is. Below the stock's price line, the covered-call side is now a full ladder rather than a single suggestion, and it leads with the call at or above the strike you sold — the one where being called away books no loss on the shares. Cheaper calls underneath are marked in amber, because they cap the recovery you are waiting for. You can now select a roll and a covered call together and compare exactly those two, and Opty will read the whole position before you pick anything: how much of the buyback is time value, what the grid actually offers, and what simply waiting is worth. There is a guided tour in the window itself.
From the channel
Latest on the channel: How Much I Made Trading The Wheel This Week
⚠ Educational Only — Not Financial Advice
All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.