Friday, September 11, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
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All four major indexes fell Thursday and VIX jumped over 8%; this morning attention turns to August CPI at 08:30 ET with rate-hike odds now above 60% and crude near $100 in futures.
What happened
Thursday's session was a broad retreat — global equity markets faced selling pressure as surging energy costs and rising sovereign bond yields rattled investor sentiment ahead of the US inflation data. Every major index closed lower. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10.7 basis points on the day. U.S. wholesale prices rose in August; the producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus, per CNBC.
On an annual basis PPI came in at 5.4%, still well above the Fed's 2% target. Communication Services and Financial Services were the only sectors to hold positive medians; Basic Materials, Healthcare and Industrials led declines.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,591.70 | -0.58% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,081.72 | -0.65% |
| Dow Jones | 52,064.10 | -0.60% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,890.95 | -1.04% |
| VIX | 17.84 | +8.38% |
What it means for premium sellers
The Balanced band (VIX 16–20) is active. The vol structure is in contango, with near-term implied vol sitting below the three-month measure — a term structure that tends to favour short premium positions. The week's expected move for SPY is ±1.08% and for QQQ is ±1.49%; the monthly expected move for SPY is ±3.22% and for QQQ is ±4.57%. VIX has risen nearly 25% over the past week; that drift matters for how much premium the market is offering right now versus a week ago.
Today and this week
Today — Friday, September 11
CPI (August), 08:30 ET: the median consensus estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) is 3.3%, per FactSet.
The July 2026 reading came in at 3.4%, matching its estimate.
The market-implied mean heading into the print was 3.38%, according to Nowflation. A number at or above the street's 3.4% level would land into an already anxious rate environment.
This week
Tuesday, September 16: Retail sales (August), 08:30 ET; FOMC decision + projections, 14:00 ET — five days away. The September 16 meeting will also include updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, giving markets a clearer view of policymakers' expectations for rates through the end of the year.
Polymarket currently prices a 63% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 37% chance of no change at the September 16 meeting.
Rate probability markets as of this morning show an 82% hike probability, per RateProbability.com. Readings vary across venues — the decision is genuinely contested, and today's CPI number feeds directly into it. Thursday, September 17: Weekly jobless claims, 08:30 ET (scheduled).
Earnings this week
Kroger (KR) reports before the open today. The options market is pricing about ±6.39%. Yahoo consensus for the quarter is $1.05 per share. Lennar (LEN) reports after the close on September 16; the options market is pricing about ±7.00%; Yahoo consensus is $1.30 per share.
Overnight
Asia's MSCI Pacific Index tumbled 1.7% overnight, its steepest single-day drop in three weeks, as a broad-based retreat swept through Japan, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan, per Tickmill.
Brent crude is trading near $108 per barrel as the Iran conflict intensifies around the Strait of Hormuz; rising energy costs are amplifying inflation risk ahead of the CPI release, per NordFX.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.96%, on the cusp of the psychologically significant 5% level, after hot PPI data and the ECB's hawkish rate move Thursday, per NordFX.
In the news
- American Eagle Outfitters reported Q2 EPS of 79 cents, up 75.6% year-over-year and well ahead of estimates, but a $179 million one-time tariff-refund benefit drove much of the beat; the stock fell nearly 14% on the day as the market parsed the quality of the earnings. (Zacks Investment Research)
- Annaly Capital Management closed down 2.7%, underperforming the broader market, despite positive earnings projections; the mREIT's sensitivity to rising rates weighed on sentiment. (Zacks Investment Research)
- Vertiv announced a $1.45 billion acquisition of Utility Innovation Holdings to extend into microgrid solutions and upstream power architecture for data centers — a move designed to expand its footprint in the AI infrastructure build-out. (The Motley Fool)
- Amazon CEO Andy Jassy announced the company will increase capital spending to $220 billion in 2026 to meet surging AI infrastructure demand, with expectations that demand will continue into 2027 and beyond, benefiting chip and networking suppliers. (The Motley Fool)
- Nvidia returned $26 billion to shareholders last quarter through buybacks and dividends, following a dramatic dividend increase earlier in the year; the yield remains modest relative to the buyback programme. (The Motley Fool)
- Robinhood Markets partnered with Crypto.com to route select football event contracts to a CFTC-regulated exchange; prediction markets have become the company's fastest-growing business segment. (Zacks Investment Research)
- NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced continued progress on their proposed all-stock combination following shareholder approval on September 3; the deal would create one of the largest U.S. electric utility platforms. (GlobeNewswire)
Names in play
Airlines and energy names dominate the screen as crude pushes toward $100 in futures; here are the five names the model surfaced.
$NU $15.02 Nu Holdings Ltd.
IV 46% · IV Rank 58 (under a year of history) · IV/HV 1.03x · Wheel Score 91 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Nov 12
Reference: $14 put, Oct 16 (35 days, monthly) · $0.41/share · 2.93% on cash · 30.5%/yr · Δ 0.27 · open interest 16,846
Brazilian digital bank riding strong Latin American fintech expansion, with earnings growth well above the sector.
$LUV $38.69 Southwest Airlines Company
IV 42% · IV Rank 47 · IV/HV 1.19x · Wheel Score 90 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $37.5 put, Sep 18 (7 days, weekly) · $0.43/share · 1.15% on cash · 59.8%/yr · Δ 0.25 · open interest 3,391
Domestic airline pulled back sharply from its highs as oil prices surge, keeping premium elevated on a profitable carrier.
$HAL $36.07 Halliburton Company
IV 37% · IV Rank 44 · IV/HV 1.14x · Wheel Score 84 · Assignment Quality 76 · Reports Oct 20 before the open
Reference: $35 put, Sep 18 (7 days, weekly) · $0.31/share · 0.89% on cash · 46.2%/yr · Δ 0.26 · open interest 5,911
Oilfield services giant sitting in the upper part of its 52-week range as crude approaches three-digit territory.
$UAL $106.49 United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
IV 46% · IV Rank 43 · IV/HV 1.13x · Wheel Score 96 · Assignment Quality 68 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $97.5 put, Oct 16 (35 days, monthly) · $2.56/share · 2.63% on cash · 27.4%/yr · Δ 0.23 · open interest 915
Major airline with analyst consensus firmly positive, having pulled back meaningfully from its highs into a range where the wheel historically generates income.
$ALLY $42.17 Ally Financial Inc.
IV 32% · IV Rank 37 · IV/HV 1.46x · Wheel Score 89 · Assignment Quality 82 · Reports Oct 16 before the open
Reference: $41 put, Sep 18 (7 days, weekly) · $0.45/share · 1.1% on cash · 57.2%/yr · Δ 0.24 · open interest 671
NU's IV Rank history covers fewer than 52 weeks; the rank is real but measured over a shorter window than the other names on this list.
ALLY: some strike ladders on this name carry thin open interest — liquidity deserves a check before sizing any position.
HAL and LUV: certain weekly strikes on both names show thin open interest; the same check applies.
How the last five aged
Featured Sep 4 · 7 days ago
| Name | Then → now | Change | vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | $75.96 → $72.56 | -4.48% | above $71 put |
| LUV | $38.73 → $38.69 | -0.10% | above $36 put |
| DVN | $48.79 → $50.02 | +2.52% | above $46 put |
| UAL | $108.66 → $106.49 | -2.00% | above $100 put |
| HAL | $37.29 → $36.07 | -3.27% | above $35 put |
All five names from September 4 remain above their reference strikes — UBER, LUV, UAL, DVN and HAL — though UBER has drifted lower by about 4.5% and HAL has slipped roughly 3.3% since that edition.
Opty's books
- Opty Weekly v1 — winding down, 2 positions running to expiry; +10.80% on capital, +30.56% annualized, 93% wins
- Opty Ladder — 8 open; 45.3% deployed vs a 53% target (Balanced band); +1.22% on capital (18 days old, too new to annualize), 100% wins
- Opty Monthly — 5 open; 40.7% deployed vs a 56% target (Balanced band); +9.50% on capital, +26.87% annualized, 100% wins
Worth watching
- $PCG in Opty Ladder: $14 put (Sep 18), closed $14.03, 0.2% of cushion. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $CCL in Opty Ladder: $23 put (Sep 18), closed $22.47, 2.4% inside the strike, breakeven $22.52. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $UBER in Opty Ladder: $71 put (Sep 18), closed $72.56, 2.1% of cushion
- $NFLX in Opty Ladder: $74 put (Sep 18), closed $76.01, 2.6% of cushion
- $CMCSA in Opty Ladder: $25.5 put (Sep 18), closed $25.17, 1.3% inside the strike, breakeven $25.27
- $AFRM in Opty Monthly: $70 put (Oct 16), closed $67.99, 3.0% inside the strike, breakeven $66.40
- $CCL in Opty Monthly: $22 put (Oct 16), closed $22.47, 2.1% of cushion
- $CRDO in Opty Monthly: $200 put (Oct 16), closed $160.31, 24.8% inside the strike, breakeven $187.70
- $AEO in Opty Monthly: $15 put (Oct 16), closed $14.53, 3.2% inside the strike, breakeven $14.28 Down 14.0% in the last session.
Jim's own book: +17.77% on account over 246 days, 92% wins (79W/7L). Track record →
Every position, priced live: the AI Trader page →
One thing worth knowing
When a short put goes in the money, it marks an assignment risk — not automatically a loss — because the breakeven sits below the strike by every dollar of premium already collected.
When "in the money" is not a loss
A short put going in the money is an assignment risk, not automatically a loss. The strike is where shares get put to the seller. The breakeven is the strike minus every dollar of premium collected on that name, and it is the breakeven that decides whether the position is underwater at expiry. Between those two prices, assignment happens and the trade is still ahead. That gap is why the wheel has a second half: assignment is the trade doing what it was structured to do, buying shares at a named price, at a discount by the premium already received.
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All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.