Monday, September 14, 2026 · Pre-market · Data: OptyTrades screener (prev. close)
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Futures are pulling back hard this Monday, September 14, as oil above $100 a barrel and near-certain Fed hike odds into Wednesday's decision combine to erase Friday's equity gains before the cash open.
What happened
Friday, September 11 delivered a broad, four-index advance. Technology led with the strongest breadth, followed by Consumer Cyclical and Industrials. Utilities were the only sector to close lower with meaningful breadth damage. VIX fell sharply, reflecting the session's risk-on posture. Hewlett Packard Enterprise surged after reporting a record AI backlog, per Zacks Investment Research. NuScale Power dropped steeply alongside a Motley Fool comparison piece that weighed its reactor pipeline against peers. The 10-year Treasury yield edged higher.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | +0.86% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,333.04 | +0.96% |
| Dow Jones | 52,573.29 | +0.98% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,903.94 | +0.45% |
| VIX | 15.84 | -11.21% |
What it means for premium sellers
The VIX closed the recapped session in the Greed band — elevated enough to be interesting but not so elevated that deployment should run wide open. The vol term structure is in contango, meaning near-term realized fear is priced lower than the market's longer view of uncertainty. SPY's options market is pricing about ±0.71% through this week's expiry and about ±2.77% through mid-October. QQQ is pricing about ±1.0% for the week and about ±3.9% for the October cycle. With a rate decision two days away, those near-term expected moves are compact — the market is not yet paying up for Wednesday event risk in the weekly contracts.
Today and this week
No tier-1 economic releases are scheduled for Monday, September 14.
Wednesday, September 16 brings two tier-1 events back to back: Retail Sales (August) at 8:30 a.m. ET from the Census Bureau, and then the FOMC decision with updated projections at 2:00 p.m. ET. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at 85.6% for the September 16 meeting, per Yahoo Finance. Polymarket shows an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, with a 21% probability of no change. The current target range has held at 3.50%–3.75% at every meeting so far this year. The Wednesday decision comes with a full dot plot and updated Summary of Economic Projections. How the Fed frames what comes next matters as much as the decision itself — a signal of further hikes could push bond yields higher, while a one-and-done tone would give equities room to breathe, per Yahoo Finance.
Thursday, September 17 brings Weekly Jobless Claims (scheduled by rule, time 8:30 a.m. ET).
The FOMC decision is 2 days away — Wednesday, September 16.
This week's earnings reporters worth watching: LEN reports Wednesday, September 16 after the close; the options market is pricing about ±6.73%, with Yahoo consensus EPS at $1.30. FPS reports Tuesday, September 15 before the open; the options market is pricing about ±15.87%, with Yahoo consensus EPS at $0.24.
Geopolitical risk is rising overnight: Iran-backed Houthi forces have seized the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical route for Saudi crude, and Saudi Arabia temporarily shut a cross-country oil pipeline after targeted attacks, per T. Rowe Price. Brent peaked above $107 a barrel on that news, per Rio Times Online. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.51% to a six-week low, and the Hang Seng dropped 0.5%, marking a fourth straight losing session, per NordFX Market Pulse.
In the news
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise surged 12.44% on Friday, September 11. Zacks Investment Research noted the company has reported $2.4 billion in AI Systems orders and a record $7.6 billion AI backlog, with server revenue up sharply — the AI infrastructure buildout is putting real numbers on the board.
- NuScale Power fell 15.67% on September 11. The Motley Fool published a comparison of three early-stage nuclear and materials companies, ranking NuScale against peers on timeline to commercial deployment — the sector sold off broadly as investors weighed execution risk across all three names.
- Super Micro Computer rose sharply heading into the week, with Zacks reporting that Q4 FY2026 EPS of $1.70 significantly beat consensus, revenue grew 93% year over year, and the company cited over $60 billion in new orders — the AI server buildout narrative remains intact.
- Uber secured Spain's first national Level 4 autonomous vehicle permit alongside WeRide and AVOMO, with a Madrid rollout targeting 20 vehicles and commercial service by year-end, according to Zacks Investment Research — the deal is asset-light and extends the autonomous footprint into Europe.
- Hims & Hers Health faces a securities class action filed by Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP, alleging false statements about consumer privacy and billing practices following an FTC lawsuit filed in July 2026, per GlobeNewswire.
- American Eagle Outfitters beat Q2 estimates with EPS of $0.79, up 75.6% year over year, according to Zacks — a $179 million tariff-refund benefit and strong Aerie brand momentum drove the headline, though the core American Eagle brand posted flat comparable sales.
- Credo Technology Group was highlighted positively in a Motley Fool semiconductor comparison for 205.7% year-over-year revenue growth and seven consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth, underpinned by its role in AI data-center connectivity infrastructure.
Names in play
Five names cleared the screen this week — airlines and energy showing up alongside a held name already in the books.
$UAL $109.82 United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
IV 49% · IV Rank 49 · IV/HV 1.21x · Wheel Score 93 · Assignment Quality 68 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $100 put, Oct 16 (32 days, monthly) · $2.33/share · 2.33% on cash · 26.6%/yr · Δ 0.26 · open interest 1,113
Airline catching a tailwind from autonomous-vehicle partnerships in Europe and a strong domestic travel backdrop.
$LUV $39.24 Southwest Airlines Company
IV 42% · IV Rank 48 · IV/HV 1.21x · Wheel Score 90 · Assignment Quality 71 · Reports Oct 21 after the close
Reference: $35 put, Oct 16 (32 days, monthly) · $0.44/share · 1.26% on cash · 14.3%/yr · Δ 0.17 · open interest 974
Pulled back from its 52-week highs and sits in a range that has historically attracted premium sellers; next earnings in late October.
$SMCI $40.10 Super Micro Computer, Inc.
IV 81% · IV Rank 44 · IV/HV 1.02x · Wheel Score 86 · Assignment Quality 63 · Reports Nov 3
Reference: $36 put, Sep 25 (11 days, weekly) · $0.60/share · 1.67% on cash · 55.3%/yr · Δ 0.27 · open interest 1,067
AI server demand story is intact after a blowout quarter, and the stock is back in the mid-range of its recent corridor.
FCX and SMCI carry unusual put/call skew readings that suggest option marks may be stale against spot — verify those chains before using the card numbers. DVN's skew is similarly elevated on the call side.
$FCX $71.07 Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.
IV 54% · IV Rank 72 · IV/HV 1.09x · Wheel Score 81 · Assignment Quality 74 · Reports Oct 22 before the open
Reference: $65 put, Oct 16 (32 days, monthly) · $1.48/share · 2.28% on cash · 26%/yr · Δ 0.28 · open interest 7,690
Copper demand tied to energy transition and data-center buildout; pulled back from recent highs into a potentially more favorable range.
$DVN $50.23 Devon Energy Corporation
IV 36% · IV Rank 44 · IV/HV 1.12x · Wheel Score 75 · Assignment Quality 86 · Reports Nov 4
Reference: $47.5 put, Oct 16 (32 days, monthly) · $1.06/share · 2.23% on cash · 25.5%/yr · Δ 0.25 · open interest 2,564
Oil and gas name catching a bid as crude pushes above $100; reports next in early November.
DVN weekly strikes at moderate and aggressive levels show very thin open interest — monthly strikes carry meaningfully better depth for this name.
How the last five aged
Featured Sep 9 · 5 days ago
| Name | Then → now | Change | vs reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCX | $76.62 → $71.07 | -7.24% | above $71 put |
| NU | $15.33 → $14.62 | -4.63% | above $14 put |
| LUV | $38.67 → $39.24 | +1.47% | above $36 put |
| UBER | $73.13 → $71.67 | -2.00% | above $69 put |
| HAL | $36.80 → $35.84 | -2.61% | above $35 put |
All five names from September 9 are sitting above their reference strikes heading into expiry — FCX and NU have drifted lower since the edition but both remain above the put strike, while LUV, UBER and HAL held their ground or ticked higher.
Opty's books
- Opty Weekly v1 — winding down, 2 positions running to expiry; +10.80% on capital, +29.87% annualized, 93% wins
- Opty Ladder — 7 open; 35.8% deployed vs a 46% target (Greed band); +1.22% on capital (21 days old, too new to annualize), 100% wins
- Opty Monthly — 5 open; 40.7% deployed vs a 46% target (Greed band); +9.50% on capital, +26.26% annualized, 100% wins
Worth watching
- $PCG in Opty Ladder: $14 put (Sep 18), closed $13.80, 1.4% inside the strike, breakeven $13.75. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $CCL in Opty Ladder: $23 put (Sep 18), closed $22.75, 1.1% inside the strike, breakeven $22.52. A Recovery DCA lot: in the money is the intent.
- $UBER in Opty Ladder: $71 put (Sep 18), closed $71.67, 0.9% of cushion
- $NFLX in Opty Ladder: $74 put (Sep 18), closed $77.40, 4.4% of cushion
- $CMCSA in Opty Ladder: $25.5 put (Sep 18), closed $25.20, 1.2% inside the strike, breakeven $25.27
- $AFRM in Opty Monthly: $70 put (Oct 16), closed $71.44, 2.0% of cushion
- $CCL in Opty Monthly: $22 put (Oct 16), closed $22.75, 3.3% of cushion
- $CRDO in Opty Monthly: $200 put (Oct 16), closed $162.95, 22.7% inside the strike, breakeven $187.70
- $AEO in Opty Monthly: $15 put (Oct 16), closed $15.02, 0.1% of cushion
Jim's own book: +17.45% on account over 249 days, 92% wins (80W/7L). Track record →
Every position, priced live: the AI Trader page →
One thing worth knowing
Several puts in the books are sitting in the money right now — the lesson below explains why that is a position status, not automatically a verdict on the trade.
When "in the money" is not a loss
A short put going in the money is an assignment risk, not automatically a loss. The strike is where shares get put to the seller. The breakeven is the strike minus every dollar of premium collected on that name, and it is the breakeven that decides whether the position is underwater at expiry. Between those two prices, assignment happens and the trade is still ahead. That gap is why the wheel has a second half: assignment is the trade doing what it was structured to do, buying shares at a named price, at a discount by the premium already received.
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All market analysis and position data shared here is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this email constitutes financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.